12 research outputs found
Maximum and minimum of modified gambler's ruin problem
We obtain maximum and minimum of modified gambler's ruin problem by studying
discrete random walk with absorbing barriers on the boundary. The modification
is that our process can move one step forward or backward (standard gambler's
ruin problem), but we have also the possibilty to stay where we are for a time
unit or there can be absorption in the current state (game is terminated
without reaching an absorbing barrier).Comment: 13 page
Ebert's asymmetric Hat Game
The Hat Game (Ebert's Hat Problem) got much attention in the beginning of
this century; not in the last place by its connections to coding theory and
computer science. All players guess simultaneously the color of their own head
observing only the hat colors of the other players. It is also allowed for each
player to pass: no color is guessed. The team wins if at least one player
guesses his or her own hat color correct and none of the players has an
incorrect guess. This paper studies Ebert's hat problem, where the
probabilities of the colors may be different (asymmetric case). Our goal is to
maximize the probability of winning the game and to describe winning
strategies. In this paper we introduce the notion of an adequate set. The
construction of adequate sets is independent of underlying probabilities and we
use this fact in the analysis of the asymmetric case. Another point of interest
is the fact that computational complexity using adequate sets is much less than
using standard methods.Comment: 33 page
Discrete random walk with barriers on a locally infinite graph
We obtain expected number of arrivals, absorption probabilities and expected
time before absorption for an asymmetric discrete random walk on a locally
infinite graph in the presence of multiple function barriersComment: 21 pages, 6 figure
General three person two color Hat Game
Three distinguishable players are randomly fitted with a white or black hat,
where the probabilities of getting a white or black hat may be different for
each player, but known to all the players. All players guess simultaneously the
color of their own hat observing only the hat colors of the other two players.
It is also allowed for each player to pass: no color is guessed. The team wins
if at least one player guesses his hat color correctly and none of the players
has an incorrect guess. No communication of any sort is allowed, except for an
initial strategy session before the game begins. Our goal is to maximize the
probability of winning the game and to describe winning strategies, using the
concept of an adequate set.Comment: 7 pages. v1 is about three and four players and is incorrect; v2 is a
modified version only about three players. arXiv admin note: substantial text
overlap with arXiv:1612.00276, arXiv:1612.05924; v3: modifications in 2.2 and
2.3; v4: modifications in 2.2 and 2.3, new section 2.
Generalized four person hat game
This paper studies Ebert's hat problem with four players and two colors,
where the probabilities of the colors may be different for each player. Our
goal is to maximize the probability of winning the game and to describe winning
strategies We use the new concept of an adequate set. The construction of
adequate sets is independent of underlying probabilities and we can use this
fact in the analysis of our general case.Comment: 18 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with
arXiv:2211.09819, arXiv:1612.00276, arXiv:1704.0424
Application of Random Walk in Manpower Planning
The career of an employee can be described (under certain circumstances) by a
random walk, where the states of the random walk are determined by the level
and position of an employee. At each decision moment the state of the employee
is changed by four stochastic transformations: upgrading one position at the
same level, upgrading one level, staying until the next decision moment in the
current state and absorption in the current state. We obtain explicit formula
for the long term behavior of the distribution of all employees using
generating functions.Comment: 10 page
General discrete random walk with variable absorbing probabilities
We obtain expected number of arrivals, probability of arrival, absorption
probabilities and expected time before absorption for a general discrete random
walk with variable absorbing probabilities on a finite interval using Fibonacci
numbersComment: 9 page